Оппозиционный политик, глава Национального банка Украины (2010—2012 гг.) Сергей Арбузов опубликовал новую запись в своём блоге:
The other day the president noted export growth to the EU countries. However, the cheers are a bit exaggerated — the growth has been mainly provided by only one group of items and not the most producible one. The majority of groups has gone negative.
The whole sum of export growth to the EU countries over six month has been provided by one group of items — oils and fats (+$484 million with total growth of $457 million). Agrarians have been trading mostly sunflower oil, market of which is rather focused. Only two EU countries have significantly increased purchases of Ukrainian oil and fats — Spain and the Netherlands.
Among other groups of items certain increase is observed in wood, grain, furniture and electric machines. Wood is a typical prime item with low processing degree. A correction has been observed in export of electric machines since the fall of 2015, and Hungary appears to be leader of both volume and growth of purchase.
Other traditional groups of Ukrainian export — chemical goods, fertilizers and metals remain unclaimed in Europe, and reduction in export of black metals is the most painful factor for the second year in a row (-41% last year and -5% this year).
While speaking about growth rates, we should remember about the dramatic slump in 2015, when Ukraine's export into «sympathizing EU countries» dropped by 36%, and about ongoing fall in trade with CIS count5ries (-30%). At such rate we will reach the level of 2014 in five years under the most optimistic forecast. And it is still unclear when and how we will recover these losses.
| СЕРГЕЙ АРБУЗОВ
Оппозиционный политик, глава Национального банка Украины (2010—2012 гг.)
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