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Сергей Арбузов: It seems EBRD specialists decided to hel...

Сергей Арбузов: It seems EBRD specialists decided to hel...

Оппозиционный политик, глава Национального банка Украины (2010—2012 гг.) Сергей Арбузов опубликовал новую запись в своём блоге:

It seems EBRD specialists decided to help Ukraine's National Bank analysts, who cannot calculate the consequences of Brexit for Ukrainian economy. According to regular NBU statements, British events will not touch either Ukraine or other developing markets. But it is not true. Ukraine is the most vulnerable country in the EBRD region, and a hit may come from any side — economic decline in any partner country will have a negative impact on our economy.

EBRD specialists have calculated potential secondary effects of British referendum for the region following the slowdown of growth in Great Britain, EU, China and Russia. They also compared these effects with other external shocks the region has been suffering over the last years (growth slowdown in China, depressed economic activity in the EU, decline in Russia). The conclusions are depressing — Ukraine is the most vulnerable country.

Even though our direct ties with Britain are not broad, 1 p.p. shrinking in Great Britain will cause 0.7 p.p. GDP decline in Ukraine (with average decline in the region at 0.4 p.p.) The negative impact will come through indirect channels, like weak growth in the EU, toughening of financial conditions in the US and the world. Even direct impact of slowdown of British economy is stronger on Ukraine (-0.2 p.p.) than on any other EBRD region country (- 0.1 p.p. on average).

Moreover, Ukrainian economy suffers the most from economic decline in Russia. EBRD notes that 1 p.p. shrinking in Russia causes 0.9 p.p. GDP decline in Ukraine.

Slowdown of growth in eurozone will hit the majority of countries of the region, but Turkey and Ukraine may suffer the severest shocks, with 1.3 p.p. and 1 p.p. decline respectively in case of 1 p.p. decline in the EU.

In general, the outlook proves that even if Russian economic growth favors Ukraine's development, the positive effect may be negated by events in the eurozone and China. And NBU attempts to put a brave face are not helping.

 Об авторе:
СЕРГЕЙ АРБУЗОВ
Оппозиционный политик, глава Национального банка Украины (2010—2012 гг.)
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