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Сергей Арбузов: Energy market outlook to 2035 — Ассоциация Центр ИЭСКР

Сергей Арбузов: Energy market outlook to 2035 — Ассоциация Центр ИЭСКР

Оппозиционный политик, глава Национального банка Украины (2010—2012 гг.) Сергей Арбузов опубликовал новую запись в своём блоге:

Expects of RESCUE Association, which I head, have prepared a good long-term outlook of energy market development. In general, defining factors are ecology and demographic tendencies. Globally, Ukraine is not a driver of either production or energy consumption. Such countries as our must understand the vector of development and get ready to a new reality.

However, the government does not show understanding of the world tendencies, and politization of the gas purchase issue over the last three years is a proof of it. According to experts, natural gas, the least-carbon intensive, will remain the fastest growing fossil fuel, +1.8% per annum, against +0.9% of oil and +0.5% of coal. It means the question of stable gas transit to Europe will also remain crucial. And intimidation of producers and consumers, as well as aging of pumping structure is a direct path to construction of pipelines bypassing Ukraine. Moreover, purchase of Russian gas from European mediators is nothing short of an attempt to struggle against the stream.

Besides, coal production sees difficult times in the long-term, and considering that its export will decline, Ukraine must start thinking about domestic consumption, which means development of new firing technologies, system filtration, maintenance of communication lines. But first of all, it is about peace in Donbass region.

Another point concerns development of renewable sources. To understand the world ambitions it would be enough to list targeted use of renewables by country: Denmark — 100% use of alternative energy source by 2035; Scotland — 100% use of renewables by 2020; Iceland already uses 99% of alternative energy sources.

At some point our government tended the issue of renewable energy sources. As a result, the share of wind, solar and bio energy grew from 1.8% in 2009 to 3.3% in 2014. Production of wind and solar power increased by 34 times thanks to new wind and solar plants. It means Ukraine has been given a significant impetus in this direction, and it would be so wrong to sacrifice the results for a whim to discredit political opponents.

Energy market outlook to 2035 — Ассоциация Центр ИЭСКР

Signs of change in global energy have multiplied recently, and world economy must meet new challenges. Oil prices fell sharply, with the prices of other fuels moving in tandem in many parts of the world.

 Об авторе:
СЕРГЕЙ АРБУЗОВ
Оппозиционный политик, глава Национального банка Украины (2010—2012 гг.)
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