Оппозиционный политик, глава Национального банка Украины (2010—2012 гг.) Сергей Арбузов опубликовал новую запись в своём блоге:
Both the government and National Bank assure us that already the next year Ukraine will get record-high inflow of FDI — $4.5 billion. Former minister Abromavičius also predicted gold mountains — $5 billion in 2016. unfortunately, I cannot share the hopes of the authorities regarding FDI amount or their positive effect for the economic growth.
According to the latest data of UNCTAD, over 2014—2014 Ukraine managed to attract $3.26 billion of FDI, which is four times less than over previous two years (2012—2013).
Ukraine's share in global FDI inflow in 2015 made 0.168%, considering that world FDI showed record-high growth last year — almost by 40% to $1.8 trillion. FDI reached the post crisis maximum and were just a little less than in the record year of 2007.
Increase of FDI flows to Ukraine in 2015 mainly owed to large recapitalization needs in the banking sector. Thus, the banking sector received up to 80%of FDI in 2015, while real sector of economy did not receive any.
The situation with global FDI is unstable, according to UNCTAD. Thus, in 2016 FDI will reduced by 10-15% due to slowdown of global economy, strengthening of control over tax-minimizing deals and decline in income of transnational corporations. In 2017 FDI will resume growth and will reached last year figures in 2018.
Ukraine's best hope is privatization. As UNCTAD states in its report, «Ukraine developed a list of approximately 300 State-owned enterprises to be privatized, by adopting a resolution on conducting a transparent and competitive privatization process». However, the program of 2016 has been failed (one of the reasons why IMF delayed the next tranche), and other facts offer little room for optimism as well.
Sham fight against corruption, permanent political turbulence, incapable parliament and poor prospects fro IMF cooperation keep deterring potential investors.
Thus, my forecast regarding FDI inflow is half as high as the governmental one — $2.5-2.7 billion this and next year.
| СЕРГЕЙ АРБУЗОВ|
Оппозиционный политик, глава Национального банка Украины (2010—2012 гг.)
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